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6. Process or Product Monitoring and Control
6.4. Introduction to Time Series Analysis
6.4.4. Univariate Time Series Models
6.4.4.1. Sample Data Sets

6.4.4.1.2.

Data Set of Southern Oscillations

Source and Background The southern oscillation is defined as the barametric pressure difference between Tahiti and the Darwin Islands at sea level. The southern oscillation is a predictor of el nino which in turn is thought to be a driver of world-wide weather. Specifically, repeated southern oscillation values less than -1 typically defines an el nino. Note: the decimal values in the second column of the data given below are obtained as (month number - 0.5)/12.
Data
 Southern
Oscillation Year + fraction Year Month ---------------------------------------------- -0.7 1955.04 1955 1 1.3 1955.13 1955 2 0.1 1955.21 1955 3 -0.9 1955.29 1955 4 0.8 1955.38 1955 5 1.6 1955.46 1955 6 1.7 1955.54 1955 7 1.4 1955.63 1955 8 1.4 1955.71 1955 9 1.5 1955.79 1955 10 1.4 1955.88 1955 11 0.9 1955.96 1955 12 1.2 1956.04 1956 1 1.1 1956.13 1956 2 0.9 1956.21 1956 3 1.1 1956.29 1956 4 1.4 1956.38 1956 5 1.2 1956.46 1956 6 1.1 1956.54 1956 7 1.0 1956.63 1956 8 0.0 1956.71 1956 9 1.9 1956.79 1956 10 0.1 1956.88 1956 11 0.9 1956.96 1956 12 0.4 1957.04 1957 1 -0.4 1957.13 1957 2 -0.4 1957.21 1957 3 0.0 1957.29 1957 4 -1.1 1957.38 1957 5 -0.4 1957.46 1957 6 0.1 1957.54 1957 7 -1.1 1957.63 1957 8 -1.0 1957.71 1957 9 -0.1 1957.79 1957 10 -1.2 1957.88 1957 11 -0.5 1957.96 1957 12 -1.9 1958.04 1958 1 -0.7 1958.13 1958 2 -0.3 1958.21 1958 3 0.1 1958.29 1958 4 -1.3 1958.38 1958 5 -0.3 1958.46 1958 6 0.3 1958.54 1958 7 0.7 1958.63 1958 8 -0.4 1958.71 1958 9 -0.4 1958.79 1958 10 -0.6 1958.88 1958 11 -0.8 1958.96 1958 12 -0.9 1959.04 1959 1 -1.5 1959.13 1959 2 0.8 1959.21 1959 3 0.2 1959.29 1959 4 0.2 1959.38 1959 5 -0.9 1959.46 1959 6 -0.5 1959.54 1959 7 -0.6 1959.63 1959 8 0.0 1959.71 1959 9 0.3 1959.79 1959 10 0.9 1959.88 1959 11 0.8 1959.96 1959 12 0.0 1960.04 1960 1 -0.2 1960.13 1960 2 0.5 1960.21 1960 3 0.9 1960.29 1960 4 0.2 1960.38 1960 5 -0.5 1960.46 1960 6 0.4 1960.54 1960 7 0.5 1960.63 1960 8 0.7 1960.71 1960 9 -0.1 1960.79 1960 10 0.6 1960.88 1960 11 0.7 1960.96 1960 12 -0.4 1961.04 1961 1 0.5 1961.13 1961 2 -2.6 1961.21 1961 3 1.1 1961.29 1961 4 0.2 1961.38 1961 5 -0.4 1961.46 1961 6 0.1 1961.54 1961 7 -0.3 1961.63 1961 8 0.0 1961.71 1961 9 -0.8 1961.79 1961 10 0.7 1961.88 1961 11 1.4 1961.96 1961 12 1.7 1962.04 1962 1 -0.5 1962.13 1962 2 -0.4 1962.21 1962 3 0.0 1962.29 1962 4 1.2 1962.38 1962 5 0.5 1962.46 1962 6 -0.1 1962.54 1962 7 0.3 1962.63 1962 8 0.5 1962.71 1962 9 0.9 1962.79 1962 10 0.2 1962.88 1962 11 0.0 1962.96 1962 12 0.8 1963.04 1963 1 0.3 1963.13 1963 2 0.6 1963.21 1963 3 0.9 1963.29 1963 4 0.0 1963.38 1963 5 -1.5 1963.46 1963 6 -0.3 1963.54 1963 7 -0.4 1963.63 1963 8 -0.7 1963.71 1963 9 -1.6 1963.79 1963 10 -1.0 1963.88 1963 11 -1.4 1963.96 1963 12 -0.5 1964.04 1964 1 -0.2 1964.13 1964 2 0.6 1964.21 1964 3 1.7 1964.29 1964 4 -0.2 1964.38 1964 5 0.7 1964.46 1964 6 0.5 1964.54 1964 7 1.4 1964.63 1964 8 1.3 1964.71 1964 9 1.3 1964.79 1964 10 0.0 1964.88 1964 11 -0.5 1964.96 1964 12 -0.5 1965.04 1965 1 0.0 1965.13 1965 2 0.2 1965.21 1965 3 -1.1 1965.29 1965 4 0.0 1965.38 1965 5 -1.5 1965.46 1965 6 -2.3 1965.54 1965 7 -1.3 1965.63 1965 8 -1.4 1965.71 1965 9 -1.2 1965.79 1965 10 -1.8 1965.88 1965 11 0.0 1965.96 1965 12 -1.4 1966.04 1966 1 -0.5 1966.13 1966 2 -1.6 1966.21 1966 3 -0.7 1966.29 1966 4 -0.6 1966.38 1966 5 0.0 1966.46 1966 6 -0.1 1966.54 1966 7 0.3 1966.63 1966 8 -0.3 1966.71 1966 9 -0.3 1966.79 1966 10 -0.1 1966.88 1966 11 -0.5 1966.96 1966 12 1.5 1967.04 1967 1 1.2 1967.13 1967 2 0.8 1967.21 1967 3 -0.2 1967.29 1967 4 -0.4 1967.38 1967 5 0.6 1967.46 1967 6 0.0 1967.54 1967 7 0.4 1967.63 1967 8 0.5 1967.71 1967 9 -0.2 1967.79 1967 10 -0.7 1967.88 1967 11 -0.7 1967.96 1967 12 0.5 1968.04 1968 1 0.8 1968.13 1968 2 -0.5 1968.21 1968 3 -0.3 1968.29 1968 4 1.2 1968.38 1968 5 1.4 1968.46 1968 6 0.6 1968.54 1968 7 -0.1 1968.63 1968 8 -0.3 1968.71 1968 9 -0.3 1968.79 1968 10 -0.4 1968.88 1968 11 0.0 1968.96 1968 12 -1.4 1969.04 1969 1 0.8 1969.13 1969 2 -0.1 1969.21 1969 3 -0.8 1969.29 1969 4 -0.8 1969.38 1969 5 -0.2 1969.46 1969 6 -0.7 1969.54 1969 7 -0.6 1969.63 1969 8 -1.0 1969.71 1969 9 -1.4 1969.79 1969 10 -0.1 1969.88 1969 11 0.3 1969.96 1969 12 -1.2 1970.04 1970 1 -1.2 1970.13 1970 2 0.0 1970.21 1970 3 -0.5 1970.29 1970 4 0.1 1970.38 1970 5 1.1 1970.46 1970 6 -0.6 1970.54 1970 7 0.3 1970.63 1970 8 1.2 1970.71 1970 9 0.8 1970.79 1970 10 1.8 1970.88 1970 11 1.8 1970.96 1970 12 0.2 1971.04 1971 1 1.4 1971.13 1971 2 2.0 1971.21 1971 3 2.6 1971.29 1971 4 0.9 1971.38 1971 5 0.2 1971.46 1971 6 0.1 1971.54 1971 7 1.4 1971.63 1971 8 1.5 1971.71 1971 9 1.8 1971.79 1971 10 0.5 1971.88 1971 11 0.1 1971.96 1971 12 0.3 1972.04 1972 1 0.6 1972.13 1972 2 0.1 1972.21 1972 3 -0.5 1972.29 1972 4 -2.1 1972.38 1972 5 -1.7 1972.46 1972 6 -1.9 1972.54 1972 7 -1.1 1972.63 1972 8 -1.5 1972.71 1972 9 -1.1 1972.79 1972 10 -0.4 1972.88 1972 11 -1.5 1972.96 1972 12 -0.4 1973.04 1973 1 -1.5 1973.13 1973 2 0.2 1973.21 1973 3 -0.4 1973.29 1973 4 0.3 1973.38 1973 5 1.2 1973.46 1973 6 0.5 1973.54 1973 7 1.2 1973.63 1973 8 1.3 1973.71 1973 9 0.6 1973.79 1973 10 2.9 1973.88 1973 11 1.7 1973.96 1973 12 2.2 1974.04 1974 1 1.5 1974.13 1974 2 2.1 1974.21 1974 3 1.3 1974.29 1974 4 1.3 1974.38 1974 5 0.1 1974.46 1974 6 1.2 1974.54 1974 7 0.5 1974.63 1974 8 1.1 1974.71 1974 9 0.8 1974.79 1974 10 -0.4 1974.88 1974 11 0.0 1974.96 1974 12 -0.6 1975.04 1975 1 0.4 1975.13 1975 2 1.1 1975.21 1975 3 1.5 1975.29 1975 4 0.5 1975.38 1975 5 1.7 1975.46 1975 6 2.1 1975.54 1975 7 2.0 1975.63 1975 8 2.2 1975.71 1975 9 1.7 1975.79 1975 10 1.3 1975.88 1975 11 2.0 1975.96 1975 12 1.2 1976.04 1976 1 1.2 1976.13 1976 2 1.3 1976.21 1976 3 0.2 1976.29 1976 4 0.6 1976.38 1976 5 -0.1 1976.46 1976 6 -1.2 1976.54 1976 7 -1.5 1976.63 1976 8 -1.2 1976.71 1976 9 0.2 1976.79 1976 10 0.7 1976.88 1976 11 -0.5 1976.96 1976 12 -0.5 1977.04 1977 1 0.8 1977.13 1977 2 -1.2 1977.21 1977 3 -1.3 1977.29 1977 4 -1.1 1977.38 1977 5 -2.3 1977.46 1977 6 -1.5 1977.54 1977 7 -1.4 1977.63 1977 8 -0.9 1977.71 1977 9 -1.4 1977.79 1977 10 -1.6 1977.88 1977 11 -1.3 1977.96 1977 12 -0.5 1978.04 1978 1 -2.6 1978.13 1978 2 -0.8 1978.21 1978 3 -0.9 1978.29 1978 4 1.3 1978.38 1978 5 0.4 1978.46 1978 6 0.4 1978.54 1978 7 0.1 1978.63 1978 8 0.0 1978.71 1978 9 -0.8 1978.79 1978 10 -0.1 1978.88 1978 11 -0.2 1978.96 1978 12 -0.5 1979.04 1979 1 0.6 1979.13 1979 2 -0.5 1979.21 1979 3 -0.7 1979.29 1979 4 0.5 1979.38 1979 5 0.6 1979.46 1979 6 1.3 1979.54 1979 7 -0.7 1979.63 1979 8 0.1 1979.71 1979 9 -0.4 1979.79 1979 10 -0.6 1979.88 1979 11 -0.9 1979.96 1979 12 0.3 1980.04 1980 1 0.0 1980.13 1980 2 -1.1 1980.21 1980 3 -1.7 1980.29 1980 4 -0.3 1980.38 1980 5 -0.7 1980.46 1980 6 -0.2 1980.54 1980 7 -0.1 1980.63 1980 8 -0.5 1980.71 1980 9 -0.3 1980.79 1980 10 -0.5 1980.88 1980 11 -0.2 1980.96 1980 12 0.3 1981.04 1981 1 -0.5 1981.13 1981 2 -2.0 1981.21 1981 3 -0.6 1981.29 1981 4 0.8 1981.38 1981 5 1.6 1981.46 1981 6 0.8 1981.54 1981 7 0.4 1981.63 1981 8 0.3 1981.71 1981 9 -0.7 1981.79 1981 10 0.1 1981.88 1981 11 0.4 1981.96 1981 12 1.0 1982.04 1982 1 0.0 1982.13 1982 2 0.0 1982.21 1982 3 -0.1 1982.29 1982 4 -0.6 1982.38 1982 5 -2.5 1982.46 1982 6 -2.0 1982.54 1982 7 -2.7 1982.63 1982 8 -1.9 1982.71 1982 9 -2.2 1982.79 1982 10 -3.2 1982.88 1982 11 -2.5 1982.96 1982 12 -3.4 1983.04 1983 1 -3.5 1983.13 1983 2 -3.2 1983.21 1983 3 -2.1 1983.29 1983 4 0.9 1983.38 1983 5 -0.5 1983.46 1983 6 -0.9 1983.54 1983 7 -0.4 1983.63 1983 8 0.9 1983.71 1983 9 0.3 1983.79 1983 10 -0.1 1983.88 1983 11 -0.1 1983.96 1983 12 0.0 1984.04 1984 1 0.4 1984.13 1984 2 -0.8 1984.21 1984 3 0.4 1984.29 1984 4 0.0 1984.38 1984 5 -1.2 1984.46 1984 6 0.0 1984.54 1984 7 0.1 1984.63 1984 8 0.1 1984.71 1984 9 -0.6 1984.79 1984 10 0.3 1984.88 1984 11 -0.3 1984.96 1984 12 -0.5 1985.04 1985 1 0.8 1985.13 1985 2 0.2 1985.21 1985 3 1.4 1985.29 1985 4 -0.2 1985.38 1985 5 -1.4 1985.46 1985 6 -0.3 1985.54 1985 7 0.7 1985.63 1985 8 0.0 1985.71 1985 9 -0.8 1985.79 1985 10 -0.4 1985.88 1985 11 0.1 1985.96 1985 12 0.8 1986.04 1986 1 -1.2 1986.13 1986 2 -0.1 1986.21 1986 3 0.1 1986.29 1986 4 -0.6 1986.38 1986 5 1.0 1986.46 1986 6 0.1 1986.54 1986 7 -0.9 1986.63 1986 8 -0.5 1986.71 1986 9 0.6 1986.79 1986 10 -1.6 1986.88 1986 11 -1.6 1986.96 1986 12 -0.7 1987.04 1987 1 -1.4 1987.13 1987 2 -2.0 1987.21 1987 3 -2.7 1987.29 1987 4 -2.0 1987.38 1987 5 -2.7 1987.46 1987 6 -1.8 1987.54 1987 7 -1.7 1987.63 1987 8 -1.1 1987.71 1987 9 -0.7 1987.79 1987 10 -0.1 1987.88 1987 11 -0.6 1987.96 1987 12 -0.3 1988.04 1988 1 -0.6 1988.13 1988 2 0.1 1988.21 1988 3 0.0 1988.29 1988 4 1.1 1988.38 1988 5 -0.3 1988.46 1988 6 1.1 1988.54 1988 7 1.4 1988.63 1988 8 1.9 1988.71 1988 9 1.5 1988.79 1988 10 1.9 1988.88 1988 11 1.1 1988.96 1988 12 1.5 1989.04 1989 1 1.1 1989.13 1989 2 0.6 1989.21 1989 3 1.6 1989.29 1989 4 1.2 1989.38 1989 5 0.5 1989.46 1989 6 0.8 1989.54 1989 7 -0.8 1989.63 1989 8 0.6 1989.71 1989 9 0.6 1989.79 1989 10 -0.4 1989.88 1989 11 -0.7 1989.96 1989 12 -0.2 1990.04 1990 1 -2.4 1990.13 1990 2 -1.2 1990.21 1990 3 0.0 1990.29 1990 4 1.1 1990.38 1990 5 0.0 1990.46 1990 6 0.5 1990.54 1990 7 -0.5 1990.63 1990 8 -0.8 1990.71 1990 9 0.1 1990.79 1990 10 -0.7 1990.88 1990 11 -0.4 1990.96 1990 12 0.6 1991.04 1991 1 -0.1 1991.13 1991 2 -1.4 1991.21 1991 3 -1.0 1991.29 1991 4 -1.5 1991.38 1991 5 -0.5 1991.46 1991 6 -0.2 1991.54 1991 7 -0.9 1991.63 1991 8 -1.8 1991.71 1991 9 -1.5 1991.79 1991 10 -0.8 1991.88 1991 11 -2.3 1991.96 1991 12 -3.4 1992.04 1992 1 -1.4 1992.13 1992 2 -3.0 1992.21 1992 3 -1.4 1992.29 1992 4 0.0 1992.38 1992 5 -1.2 1992.46 1992 6 -0.8 1992.54 1992 7 0.0 1992.63 1992 8 0.0 1992.71 1992 9 -1.9 1992.79 1992 10 -0.9 1992.88 1992 11 -1.1 1992.96 1992 12
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