PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING IN HYDROMETEOROLOGY:
FROM BAYESIAN THEORY TO OPERATIONAL SYSTEM: Abstract
Statistical Engineering Division
Seminar Series
Probabilistic Forecasting in Hydrometeorology:
From Bayesian Theory to Operational System
Roman Krzysztofowicz
Professor of Systems Engineering and Statistics
University of Virginia
That forecasts should be stated in probabilistic, rather than
deterministic, terms has been argued from operational and
decision-theoretic (Bayesian) perspectives for almost a century.
Yet most operational systems produce deterministic forecasts and
most research in physical sciences has been devoted to finding the
"best" estimates rather than predictive probability distributions.
Arguably, the leap from deterministic to probabilistic forecasting
presents formidable challenges.
In 1990, the National Weather Service and the University of Virginia
embarked on a joint project. Its goal is to develop an Integrated
Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecast System. The system should
produce short-term (13 days) probabilistic forecasts of precipitation
amounts and river stages, two of the most difficult to forecast
hydrometeorological processes.
This talk will first describe the total system design, and then
highlight selected aspects of a Bayesian methodology for probabilistic
forecasting. Among those are a computer tool for assessing subjective
distributions of random fields, a meta-Gaussian processor for
quantifying uncertainty due to a deterministic model, a Bayesian
integrator of input and model uncertainties, and a graphical interface
for displaying forecasts and making decisions. Examples of data and
forecasts will be shown.
The speaker
Roman Krzysztofowicz holds an M. S. with highest distinction from
Cracow Technical University (1970), and a Ph.D. from the University
of Arizona (1978). He began his career as research engineer and
head of the computing center at the Institute for Meteorology and
Water Resources in Cracow, Poland. He held faculty posts in Systems
and Industrial Engineering at Arizona and Civil Engineering at MIT.
He is now Professor of Systems Engineering and Professor of
Statistics at the University of Virginia, where he has directed the
Graduate Program in Systems Engineering and was a founding associate
director of the Center for Risk Management. He is editor-in-chief
of the Journal of Hydrology, on the editorial boards of Stochastic
Environmental Research and Risk Assessment and Control and Cybernetics,
and serves as an expert for the World Meteorological Organization.
