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6. Process or Product Monitoring and Control
6.4. Introduction to Time Series Analysis
6.4.4. Univariate Time Series Models

Box-Jenkins Model Diagnostics

Assumptions for a Stable Univariate Process Model diagnostics for Box-Jenkins models is similar to model validation for non-linear least squares fitting.

That is, the error term \(A_t\) is assumed to follow the assumptions for a stationary univariate process. The residuals should be white noise (or independent when their distributions are normal) drawings from a fixed distribution with a constant mean and variance. If the Box-Jenkins model is a good model for the data, the residuals should satisfy these assumptions.

If these assumptions are not satisfied, we need to fit a more appropriate model. That is, we go back to the model identification step and try to develop a better model. Hopefully the analysis of the residuals can provide some clues as to a more appropriate model.

4-Plot of Residuals As discussed in the EDA chapter, one way to assess if the residuals from the Box-Jenkins model follow the assumptions is to generate a 4-plot of the residuals and an autocorrelation plot of the residuals. One could also look at the value of the Box-Ljung (1978) statistic.

An example of analyzing the residuals from a Box-Jenkins model is given in the Negiz data case study.

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